Global Capital Markets: Not There Yet

For me the current Euro crisis and the spike in gold prices reflects the investors’ inability to grasp the slow yet sweeping, rebalancing of global trade and growth. Cash surplus western investors are catching up slowly to the fact that their domestic fishing grounds are no longer viable and that their catch is falling. But, in my opinion, what they lack is knowledge and foresight to explore and enter the developing markets, where resources are abundant (and where fish are fishes). Thomas Friedman pointed out in his book ‘The World is Flat’ that the world is witnessing a globalization revolution, bringing down barriers of knowledge, information and intellect. I completely agree with his observations, but I feel finance is still not flat, although it has always been on that track.

One should now get used to increased speculation and volatility in domestic markets, as they are domestic no more; international is their new citizenship.

We are still to break down all barriers of information sharing and thus leading to an admirable state which economists call “perfect competition”. Many books have been written on the fact that globalization essentially is based on free market philosophy and has its roots in perfect competition. And so when people look at global finance, I feel they miss out on the basic assumptions of perfect completion or free markets or globalization. First, that information on prices, transactions and products are well known to all market participants.

Even George Soros, the man who made global hedge funds a symbol of global finance, questions this in his revolutionary theory of reflexivity. He also further goes on to write about how decisions of market participants have personal biases and thus enter the Keynesian animal spirits. Today there is no level playing field in global finance. From profligate and covert governments like Greece to unethical market leaders like Goldman Sachs, where is free information? With so much uncertainty the average, or better put majority, of investors will be nervous and jump on to gold.

The second assumption is that there are no transaction costs. But, in reality, today transaction costs are very high, eating into the investor’s margin. Ranging from consultancy fees, to trading fees, incoherent tax laws and legal charges; costs are higher for attracting foreign investors. Thus I reiterate that there is no level playing field.

The point I am trying to make here is that foreign investors have little (if not more) confidence and expertise while investing in developing markets. For instance, some stock analysts in India say that their foreign counterparts rely on broad macro economic data to analyze stock markets and so that explains their unpredictability when sudden macro events happen. Even I am witness to how FIIs in the last decade, even though have pumped up markets have made Indian markets even more volatile and inclined with global markets.

I feel we have a long way to go to see the full effects of a truly ‘free and flat’ global finance. One should now get used to increased speculation and volatility in domestic markets, as they are domestic no more; international is their new citizenship. Till the time we see some global regulations and standards in capital markets, like we have seen in the banking sector, investors should be worried. 

A World Oft Forgotten

Within the mainstream news these days, two parallels clearly emerge, the success of developing economies such as India and China, contrasted with the failure of erstwhile capitalist western nations. But sadly the third world remains the ‘third’ world which is still reeling under the bandits of economic growth: high poverty, low literacy, religious fanaticism and administrative inefficiency. It is as if there is no place for this third world on this planet. The everyday East-West comparison in newspapers and journals woefully neglects their presence. Globalization and its benefits are completely absent from the region. They do have footprints of globalization, but as dumping grounds of the products not suitable for the aforesaid two worlds.

As I am writing this blog post, a family somewhere in the far neglected corners of the world is being pushed below the poverty line. To my interpretation, the rise and revaluation of poverty line measures in such regions have been higher than the effective number of people coming out of poverty.

They do have footprints of globalization, but as dumping grounds of the products not suitable for the aforesaid two worlds.

Today the world has changed more than we can grasp in one go. New measures need to be employed to pull up such neglected and backward regions.  First on my mind is the need to shift from macro initiatives to the micro level. Focus should shift to micro-level programmes like micro-lending which have done so well in emerging countries. I feel that measuring and monitoring micro level support plans can be monitored and evaluated more easily and quickly.

Second, would be to eradicate “energy poverty” as coined by Thomas Friedman in Hot, flat and crowded. In simple terms, to enable the masses to fulfil their aspirations by giving them secured supply of electricity. Today, any rural programme even the basic ones from education to vaccination drives require electricity. Overcoming the third world’s inability to connect to the globalised world will be a big step in helping grow confidence.

There are many more measures which are being talked about. But these are the major recommendations which I feel are indispensable. The third world needs to be given more attention. But with tightening budgets of major donors in the West and exploitive bargain hunters of the East, I feel my worst fears for them are going to be true. 

No wonder they pray so much.

Two Worlds Apart

The world is clearly split today. With one half looking forward to a bright future and with big aspirations in their hearts and the other half of the world looking behind, still picking up rags from the remains of the last bust and trying to rebuild their economies. One half of the world is flush with liquidity and raising money is just a blink away. Whereas the other half is still carrying heavy debt burdens on their shoulders and has no idea how to lessen it. One half of the world is witnessing rapid economic progress and expectations of growth, even better than before the recession. Meanwhile, the other half is still finding it hard to recover and repair, with its problems ranging from looming inflation to mounting unemployment.

The world that was once ‘emerging’ has now arrived and the world that was once long arrived, is now trying to re-emerge. Okay enough of euphemism, let’s make it more simple! What I mean is the rebalancing of global economy is taking place more quickly than anticipated, with the current recession being just a catalyst. According to my understanding, the change was always happening, but not noticeable.

The world that was once ‘emerging’ has now arrived and the world that was once long arrived, is now trying to re-emerge.

The welfare states of the West were gradually piling up debts and unproductive government spending was further exacerbating this debt. The 2 ‘lost decades’ of the Japanese economy clearly highlight the implications of an economy saddled with expensive welfare programmes. However, not many have taken notice. For instance in America, healthcare as a percentage of GDP was just 5% in 1962. It has grown to 15% in 2010 and even after the present Obamacare reform; estimates are poised at 20% in 2017 and 25% in 2025.

Difficult fiscal outlooks are not the only problems the West faces today. Other depressants are heavy national debts, aging workforce, slowdown in consumption, expensive factors of production and the growing social and cultural discontent, especially towards immigrants and minorities.

On the other hand the East is brimming with optimism and consumption is rising at a frantic pace. Emerging economies are filled with opportunities. Innovation is growing with leaps and bounds. They successfully decoupled themselves from the collapse in the West, which was a surprise to many pundits. But again many had learnt their lesson from the Asian crisis in the 90s, and their adjustments in policy making were gradual, but not that impactful or noticeable. Strong domestic consumption accompanied with prudent foreign exchange controls built over the last decade or two have helped them recover from the crisis and in general brought in public glare their economic might. Even politically they stand taller than before. The extension from G-8 to G-20 is a significant reflection of today’s time.

Cooperation or Isolation?
What the West needs is not to grow discontent against their growth but, to learn and partner in their success. The West still holds the cards on many fronts. Ranging from intellectual asset base and technical prowess to existing influential shareholding in global institutions like IMF or UNSC. But now starts the real challenge to build partnerships, rather than blocs and give the world a better tomorrow.